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Astral Codex Ten published a November 2026 links roundup spanning AI and disaster forecasts, debates about work and status, and assorted cultural observations. The author says the links have not all been independently verified and that readers often identify errors or misleading descriptions.
Astral Codex Ten published its November 2026 links roundup, a collection of external articles, social-media posts and observations covering AI risk forecasts, California weather, labor and status, and other topics. The author cautions that the links have not all been independently verified and says readers typically identify errors or misleading material in some entries.
The roundup brings together items rather than reporting a single breaking event. Its entries include a forecast from Sentinel, described in the post as an organization that forecasts global disasters, assigning a 25% chance to a rogue AI exfiltrating its model weights over the next 12 months. That figure is presented as a forecaster’s estimate, not as evidence that such an incident has occurred or is imminent.
A separate entry relays a warning from a Sentinel-affiliated forecaster that California is expected to have a wetter-than-normal winter. The author says the forecaster cited a 2.5% chance of a major flood, then describes an AI system’s attempt to translate that estimate into possible damage thresholds. The post also reports a 5% forecast for an ARkStorm scenario this year, compared with a stated 1% baseline. These are forecasts reported by the author; the supplied material does not provide independent verification or the underlying forecast methodology.
Other entries point readers to commentary on what a world without productive work might look like, the UFO debate, the lab-leak debate, and the culture of Berkeley’s rationalist and effective-altruist communities. The post also includes lighter observations, such as a claim about an island owned by a family named Sizeland and a purported NVIDIA deal price that encodes the hugging-face emoji. Those claims are presented as links or commentary within the roundup, not as independently established findings.
Forecasts Sit Alongside Open Questions
The post is useful chiefly as a curated reading list: it places forecasts and public debates alongside articles and cultural observations, giving readers several leads to follow. Its two risk-related entries stand out because they describe possible low-probability, high-impact events—an AI system taking its weights and severe California flooding. Forecasts can draw attention to risks that are difficult to assess from daily news alone, but their percentages depend on definitions, evidence and methods that readers need to inspect before treating them as decision-ready.
The California discussion also illustrates a reporting challenge: a broad label such as “major flood” does not, by itself, say how many people or properties could be affected. The author’s own attempt to translate the figure into damage thresholds is explicitly an AI-generated interpretation. Readers should not confuse that exercise with the original forecaster’s operational definition or with an official warning. Likewise, the AI-risk estimate is a forecast, not a measured probability accepted by all experts.
The roundup’s stated correction practice matters for the rest of the list. It is a personal compilation, and the author openly warns that some links or descriptions may prove wrong or misleading. That caveat invites readers to check primary sources, especially where an entry makes a concrete claim about an acquisition, a forecast, or scientific evidence.
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A Monthly Collection With Caveats
Astral Codex Ten’s post is structured as a series of numbered links with the author’s brief reactions, rather than as a single reported investigation. It includes references to outside writers and social-media accounts and occasionally adds the author’s own interpretation. The source material supplied here includes only part of the list: its final item is cut off during a discussion of an article about natural law. The roundup’s complete contents and any later edits are not included.
At the top of the post, the author says each link has not been independently checked. They estimate that commenters find evidence that around two or three links in each roundup are wrong or misleading, and say they correct items when they notice problems and highlight important corrections later. This is the author’s description of their process, not an external audit of the November post.
Several entries are framed as pointers to ongoing discussion, not conclusions. The UFO item, for example, relays a comment by astronomer Kevin Lacker about the “Wow!” signal and similar observations. The post asks whether others can confirm that account; the supplied excerpt does not answer that question. The AI-and-work entry likewise summarizes another writer’s argument and adds the author’s own concern about how status competition might change if people used advanced AI systems to strategize.
““I haven’t independently verified each link.””
— Astral Codex Ten author
Forecast Methods And Link Accuracy
The roundup does not provide the underlying data, time horizons beyond those stated, or methodology for the Sentinel forecasts. The meaning of “rogue AI exfiltrating its weights” and the operational definition of a “major flood” are not specified in the supplied excerpt. The author’s AI-generated estimates for homes and property damage should not be treated as confirmed details of Sentinel’s forecast.
It is also unclear whether the reported acquisition price, the island description, and the other linked claims have been independently checked. The author says corrections may be made after publication, but the supplied material does not show whether any corrections have been posted. The excerpt ends partway through item 12, so it cannot establish everything included in the full November roundup.
Check Links For Later Corrections
Readers seeking to act on a forecast should consult the original forecaster’s explanation and, for California weather, current guidance from public agencies. The roundup itself does not announce a follow-up investigation or set a date for updated forecasts.
The author says they correct links when they identify errors and plan to highlight important corrections later. Readers can check the original post for revisions and follow the linked sources for their own evidence and qualifications. Until those details are available, the forecasts and claims should be read with the author’s verification warning in mind.
Key Questions
What is the November 2026 links post?
It is Astral Codex Ten’s monthly roundup of external links and commentary, covering subjects including AI risk, California weather, work and social status, and UFO discussion.
Did Sentinel predict that a rogue AI will steal its weights?
No. The roundup reports a 25% forecast over the next 12 months for a rogue AI exfiltrating its weights. That is a probability estimate, not a claim that the event has happened or will happen.
Is California facing a confirmed major flood this winter?
The post reports a forecast of a wetter-than-normal winter and a stated 2.5% chance of a major flood. It does not establish that a flood will occur, and the supplied excerpt does not define the forecast’s exact threshold.
Has the author verified every link?
No. The author says the links have not all been independently verified and estimates that commenters find errors or misleading descriptions in two or three links per roundup on average.
Are corrections already available?
The author says they make corrections when they spot problems and highlight important ones later. The supplied source material does not identify any specific correction to the November post.
Source: astralcodexten.com
